Currency pairs are interrelated in the forex markets. As a forex trader, understand that the price action of each currency pair is not independent of other.
Most pairs move relative to one another. Understanding that different currency pairs are correlated is important for you. These correlation numbers can be positive or negative.
Knowing how strong this relationship is and its direction can help you a lot in developing your trading strategies. Correlation analysis has the potential to become a great trading tool for you.
Correlations are numbers that range between +1 and -1. These numbers are calculated based on past pricing data between different currency pairs. They can provide you with information that can maximize returns, minimize risk and avoid counter productive trading.
Lets use an example to make it clear. Suppose USDJPY and USDCHF has a positive correlation of +0.83 last month. This number is close to +1. It indicates that both pairs move together most of the time in the same direction.
Now, if you are trading USDJPY and USDCHF at the same time, it will double up your position if you take long positions or short positions on both at the same time. If you lose a trade on USDJPY, the chances are that you will also lose the trade on USDCHF 83% of the times.
Lets take another example to elaborate more. EURUSD and USDCHF both have a negative correlation of -0.92 in the last month. Both the pairs are moving in opposite directions recently. If you take long position on EURUSD, it is not a good strategy to take short position on USDCHF. It will only double up your position with increased risk.
While investing in two currency pairs simultaneously, try to choose such pairs that have correlations close to zero. Zero correlation means the two pairs are almost independent of each other and mutually exclusive.
Dont forget that currency markets are constantly changing. The correlations between pairs also keep on changing. It would be good to calculate the correlation numbers between pairs on a monthly basis.